Medical trend costs are expected to drop to 8% in 2021 from the 8.7% projected for 2020 in Asia Pacific, according to a survey by Aon plc, a global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions.
However, projected medical trend rates vary significantly by location in the region.
Hong Kong is projected to see the lowest at 5.3% in 2021 due to a decrease in elective surgeries and outpatient routines.
In China, the medical trend rate in 2021 is expected to be 7%. COVID-19 has resulted in better self-protection measures taken by patients, decreasing the incidence ratio of common diagnoses. Additionally, outpatient utilisation has depreciated while online consultations have dramatically increased during the pandemic.
In Singapore, a nationwide decrease in medical plan utilisations due to the pandemic is likely to decrease medical trend rates next year. Growth in employer-provided medical benefit costs are expected to drop 30% in 2021 compared to the previous year's forecasts made prior to the pandemic, according to Aon’s 2021 global medical trend rates report.
Health plans saw significantly less utilisation in 2020 as people avoided hospitals in fear of COVID-19 infection and delayed their elective procedures.
This community-wide decrease in plan utilisation is expected to reduce Singapore's 2021 medical trend costs to 7% from the previously projected 10% in 2020.
The expectation for the new year is that inpatient care will spike back up whereas outpatient care will return to approximately 70% of pre-COVID-19 levels, and eventually normalise.
Forecasted healthcare benefit cost growth
|
Location
|
2020
|
2021
|
|
China
|
7.5%
|
7.0%
|
|
Hong Kong
|
8.1%
|
5.3%
|
|
India
|
8.5%
|
9.0%
|
|
Indonesia
|
13.0%
|
13.0%
|
|
Japan
|
1.5%
|
0.0%
|
|
Malaysia
|
14.0%
|
14.0%
|
|
Philippines
|
9.2%
|
8.0%
|
|
Singapore
|
10.0%
|
7.0%
|
|
South Korea
|
8.0%
|
7.5%
|
|
Taiwan
|
8.0%
|
8.0%
|
|
Thailand
|
13.9%
|
6.6%
|
|
Vietnam
|
11.0%
|
8.7%
|
In Asia Pacific, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and musculoskeletal diseases, cancer, and ear, nose & throat (ENT) issues are the most prevalent health conditions driving healthcare claims.
Leading health risk factors driving future medical plan costs
| |
Asia Pacific
|
|
1)
|
High Blood Pressure
|
|
2)
|
Physical Inactivity
|
|
3)
|
Ageing
|
|
4)
|
Bad Nutrition
|
|
5)
|
High Blood Glucose
|
The report also confirms the growing prevalence of health risk factors in Asia Pacific, including high blood pressure, physical inactivity, and bad nutrition, which may drive future medical plan costs.
Tim Dwyer, CEO of Health Solutions, Asia Pacific, Aon said, "COVID-19 has underscored the need for better design and management of employee health and benefit programmes. To mitigate medical costs by reducing chronic conditions, employers in Asia Pacific must invest in wellbeing programmes to promote mental health, physical activity, healthy eating, and preventive strategies like physical check-ups and screenings.
“This could supplement traditional strategies, such as controlling unreasonable plan utilisation, adjusting plan designs, narrowing networks and adding flexible benefit plans."
About 2021 global medical trends report
The survey was conducted among 107 Aon offices, each one representative of a country, that broker, administer, or otherwise advise on employer-sponsored medical plans in each of the countries covered in this report. The survey responses reflect the medical trend expectations of the Aon professionals based on their interactions with clients and carriers represented in the portfolio of the firm's medical plan business in each country.
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